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No chance of any deal getting through.
The support for a 2nd referendum in government looks to be pretty strong now, this is the only way I see it going because every MP wanting another referendum will simply keep voting everything down until they get their way.
Don't think so. Expect lots of talk of 'managed no deal' in coming weeks.
Disagree. There are 75-ish Labour MP's on record as supporting one, 37 SNP MP's (one is against), 11 LibDems, and about 5 Tory MP's.
So there won't be a second referendum until racist grandpa supports it. And he seems to be pretty dead set on a general election - his spokesman, as well was that walking roast beef Burgon both said that they'll submit multiple VONC's util success.
Most likely outcome is no deal, with a panic vote on the current Withdrawal Agreement second most likely.
There will be plenty of support for it over a no deal Brexit regardless of Corbyn.
Given no deal able to get through in Parliament that will ultimately be the impasse at some point.
There will be/is an impasse yes. But as you're aware no deal is the default, doesn't need a parliamentary vote for it
But parliament will call for a 2nd referendum before they let a no-deal go ahead, that's the point.
You could be right, but the actual mechanism for doing that is pretty tricky unless the government consents to it.
If the government doesn't consent for it and is looking to go ahead with a no-deal Brexit then a vote of no confidence will suddenly be a lot tougher for May to survive.
I've been thinking more deeply about how this will all play out.
Ultimately Labour wants the government to make the 1st move because any move they make will be bad for the Tory's. So they will block any attempt at a deal and they also won't make the call for a 2nd referendum themselves; with a timer ticking down the government will be forced to make the 1st play in some sort of direction.
There are then only 3 real plays open to the government, all of which are bad for them but ultimately it's the 3rd no-deal road which I believe they will go down: the road towards a no-deal Brexi
Of course the Government won't explicitly say they are going down the no-deal road. Instead of the government will keep making fruitless attempts to get their deal through parliament. They will have the rhetoric "back our deal or it's a no-deal Brexit" and they will keep making this case over and over even though it will have no affect on the outcome.
Given the government going down this route Labour will have 2 plays; either call for a 2nd referendum or call for a vote of no confidence again. Labour will still not want to actively be the ones making a call for a 2nd referendum and given what Labour really want it's obvious they will go down the No Confidence route.
The Tory remainers though will still not want a Labour government so they will stay on-side and will vote down a VoNC, they will also know that they still have one other play at this point; so it will be these Tory remainers instead that lead the way in calling for a 2nd referendum.
Labour will then reluctantly whip it's MP's along with some Tory remainers and the vote for a 2nd referendum will pass.
^ Very interesting post. As far as I'm concerned we simply cannot go down the no deal road, May's deal has long since run up against a very solid brick wall, and it's so soft anyway that we might as well not have bothered having the 2016 referendum, so therefore I can see a 2nd referendum with us opting to remain in the EU, which is exactly what May wants and has wanted all along.
But a 2nd referendum still doesn't automatically mean staying in the EU (although it seems very likely it would swing that way) the public would still have the opportunity to vote for May's deal in the referendum; as crap as many see it.
Agreed - it's far from certain "remain" would win, so what then? Setting the question(s) would also be a long, argument filled process as well. Deal/no dea? Deal / no deal / remain? Deal / no deal / EFTA / remain?
Given the MPs calling for it I can only presume that the house will force it's say in signing it off and thus will never allow 'no deal' as an option on the ballot.
So it will simply be a choice between Remain and a deal.
For that very reason I think no deal would have to be on the ballot, which might mean a 1,2,3 choice. But then the quagmire of second preferences etc..
There's no way the house will risk allowing No Deal to be on the ballot or allow any 3-way scenario which will make May's deal the more preferably option, the only way no-deal will be on the ballot is a straight 3-way choice which will split the leave vote but this would never fly either.
I've decided not to bet on another referendum.
I'm starting to seriously worry that I've badly miscalculated and the government will not actually support a 2nd referendum and would rather let a vote of No Confidence go through and run for an election instead.
All in all this looks like a better route for me from the government's perspective rather than backing a 2nd referendum. I couldn't see the government ever willingly allowing Corbyn into power but now I can.
This is one reason why I don't think there will be a second ref. If 'no deal' wasn't on the ballot then it would immediately be dismissed as an elite stitch-up - leaving voters with a choice of 'betrayal' (deal) versus utter betrayal (remain) of the 2016 vote. Turnout might well be lower as a consequence and the likes of Farage would be rampant.
Yes, I'm starting to think the same as I outlined in my previous post. I think I've changed stance and I'm swaying much more towards this ending in a GE now, either through the government rejecting the call for a voted on 2nd referendum or by a vote of no confidence. But I still can't rule out another referendum.
Is there such division in the Tory Party that they'd even countenance an election with the possibility of a Corbyn Government? I think they'd rather countenance mass suicide, which of course might be the same thing.
It'll only take 10 of them to support a vote of no confidence over an impending no-deal Brexit, I imagine a number of Tories MP's personal finances will potentially be heavily affected by such an event so it shouldn't be too hard to swing.
Just when things were getting interesting now we gotta wait some more months before the 2ndRef / GE.
Every bit of time will give the remain camp extra votes over the leave though as old people die and young people are able to vote. So makes sense. Nothing else will have changed when this impasse comes upon them once more.
Doubt if there'll be a 2nd, Would take months to organise and in May we'd have to vote for MEPs
The ERG would go insane :ranting:
I'm a died in the wool remainer but not sure TBH. What if BREXIT won again?
Just heard she's going to allow a vote on delaying the deadline, if Parl rejects her deal.
Labour was just about to get 2ndRef through parliament, now it won't have as much sway with MPs preferring to delay instead. But like I said this will all play out the same again, just have to wait a bit longer.
I think the ERG might fold and we'll leave on some version of May's deal on March 29.
I think we'll leave on the 29th March - some way, somehow. I don't think there'll be a 2nd referendum.
Pretty unlikely IMO. There are enough ERG nutters who won't. So for that to realistically happen Labour would have to whip in favour, and that doesn't look at all plausible.
The ERG are insane regardless, but there are plenty of non-mad MP's on both sides of the house who are very uncomfortable with a second referendum. Not that there's an actual path to one - Labour's "announcement" is purely party political in nature.
Well I predicted this will all end in an election and I don't see any change to that. But I guess it'll most likely happen at the next impasse, after the forthcoming delay.
Real problem with having an election - other than risking putting a stupid marxist racist threat to national security into Number 10 - is that I don't see how it'll fix the current impasse.
It might not do, it will also delay the uncertainty even longer.
An election probably would end up pretty bad, but that doesn't mean it's not gonna happen.
Duh. Of course the deal is going to be voted down, despite at least 400 MP's actually thinking it's ok. Most notably, Labour don't actually have any complaints with the withdrawal agreement :doh:
It's what happens next that's unknowable...
The delay is next.
Likely. And after that? God knows.
Agreed. And after enough time has elapsed, a second referendum, I feel.
Tomorrow's No Deal vote will be a free vote for the Government, so that'll pass and presumably the A50 extension vote will also pass. What then?
Then we just have to wait again until this impasse comes around a 2nd time. Only then will everybody's hands be forced .
It reminds me of that AI that was crap at playing Tetris. When it got to the end where it was forced to lose on the next piece it paused the game and didn't want to ever unpause because there was no good play for it.
The delay in a nutshell. The government with no good plays left as their only plays are no deal, a general election or a 2nd Ref.
There'd only be another referendum if there was another total impasse in the HOC.
Oh well, quite likely then.......
Or a GE which is still how I see things ultimately swinging. I think it's too damaging for the Conservatives Government to agree to another Ref so a GE will be their only path - die on their sword.
Not a chance. May hasn't come all this way to entertain a GE, and quite frankly I think that's a huge 'clutching at straws' by Corbyn. I doubt there are many people in the current climate who would have the stomach for it.
She'll ultimately either call a GE or lose a Vote or No Confidence. May will not have a choice in the matter.
No knowing how this will pan out - so wind your neck in.
Reckon a GE is fairly unlikely, and it won't solve the problem anyway.
Only way it won't end that way is if MPs take cross-party control of things and find their way to a different deal.
^ She could be forced out by other Tories. Apparently Boris and co are all frothing eagerly in the wings.
Labour want a GE. But of course no Tory wants a GE but there's enough Tory's that want to avoid a No Deal more than a GE and we have a government that won't want to be seen approving a 2nd Ref and consider betraying the people who voted leave worse than going to a GE; so ultimately it's the lesser of 3 evils for them.
I disagree. I think May has way more smarts and I actually applaud her for her efforts. Clever lady. The Labour Party is not an option, and finished at best by Mr. Corbyn, so they need to sort their shit out and find someone worth voting for.
Basically, we're going to leave the EU with May's deal. It is only a question of when enough parliamentarians get on board (imho)
You really think she can overturn this?
She has to get practically the entire Conservative Party on board bar like 10 along with the DUP too. Given she's likely to have already swayed many for this vote already who were wavering.
Unless the UK stays in the EU, or undergoes a no deal Brexit, the Withdrawal Agreement is going to pass. The meaningless political declaration might change - possibly including some nonsense about a customs union to placate the Racist Grandpa - but that's all.
It may well pass 'in the end' but only after another GE I still think.
I said before that in a GE Labour would campaign with their 'soft Brexit' however I think their position is too weak now and they'd have to give up the leave vote and campaign for a 2nd Referendun in order to avoid getting fked by the Lib Dems.
Is Vince even capable? :-k
I'm confused, do remain voters here want May's deal? I'm still holding out for a total revocation of A50, nothing less is acceptable to me.
Total revocation is incredibly unlikely - falling out with no deal is a much more likely scenario.
A possible scenario: May gets her deal through by promising ERG she'll resign. We get awful Brexiter in her place who will negotiate a "hard as nails" Brexit.
Outcome: The country is fuc*ed anyway.
Breaking news - MPs have voted to take control of Commons business in an unprecedented move to try to find a majority for any Brexit option.
The government was defeated by 329 votes to 302 on the cross-party amendment, a majority of 27 - but it would seem that May is refusing to give in to yet another defeat
What we've just witnesseed is 'the true vote' for another referendum. 329 for, 302 against.
May already saying she won't support MPs votes as I anticipated, so it's all shaping up towards a GE still as I predicted.
Sounds like there is an outside chance the deal will pass today....
I thought that too, listening to the news.
If the ERG can change their minds, why are we not allowed to re-visit the effing referendum? :ranting:
so of all the options voted on so far (votes in favour):
May’s Deal 286
Second Referendum 268
Customs Union 264
Labour plan 237
Common Market 2.0 188
No Deal 160
Malthouse B 139
Election next, I think.
Which of course laundry predicted ages ago..
It's true that Brexit has been absolute shambles but every party has actually played their hand perfectly, they've all done exactly what's in each Party's best long-term interests.
None of the parties actually care about Brexit, that's why they've been so easy to predict. However there are some rebels that do actually care, and those are the harder one's to predict - especially in the case of these indicative votes.
I said a few posts back that there's 2 important fractions; the Lib Dem, SNP etc one that want the 2nd Ref. and the Labour rebels voting for a Customs Union option over a 2nd Ref.
I can say for sure that neither of these want a No Deal so something will budge soon but I don't know which fraction will cave-in to the other first or if they will agree to support each others position so both get over the line.
I thought the EU have said if the ‘deal’ isn’t supported then that’s it. No more extensions available. So is it not the case that we’re just well screwed whatever? Maybe I’m missing info or just not processing as I quite honestly just want someone to make it stop!
The EU will extend Elly, they don't want No Deal to happen do they? And it will be a rather lengthy extension too in order to manage a GE and the mess that will follow it.
Sensational Sunday paper headlines, I get the feeling they really don't want a GE.
Of the utmost irony; Brexit, the thing that tabloids have campaigned so hard towards for years is the very thing that might be leading the country towards a Corbyn government - something that would have never happened otherwise. And probably the thing they wanted the least. This could all well yet end up in a Corbyn government, along with a long term Labour government from this Brexit fallout and A50 being revoked through a 2nd Ref, all of their own demise, how that will have come back to bite them well and truly in their behind.
:shocking: Jeremy Corbyn. :doh:
All alternatives were down-voted, so are they going to put them in a pot again and do long straw/short straw?
We have friends in the UK that quite categorically voted leave and judging by their fb posts, they aren't best pleased with their elected MP. :no:
I'm sure they aren't happy with their MPs.
The problem for the Torys is that they have a lot more leave supporters than Labour do, so when a large portion of leave voters defect to UKIP the Torys will be losing a lot more voters than Labour will.
As long a Labour can retain enough standard voters* and remain voters; a large dip in Tory votes over the smaller dip for Labour is likely to lead to a Labour government.
*I highlight this point though as Corbyn is an absolute tragedy for Labour they do stand to lose a number of standard voters too, so it will still depend on how many voters he's put off Labour whether they will get into power or not.
And if Labour do get into power it will be a very weak government which will need to be propped up by all-sorts such as the Lib Dems and SNP.
UKIP don't have any money. I'd be very surprised if they fielded many candidates.
Change merging with the LibDems would be pretty handy. Could take a bunch of SW seats from the Tories, and a bunch of metropolitan seats from Labour. That should shut down the "oh yes Jezza is bad but the Tories are evil and there's no alternative / oh yes the Tories are shit but Jezz is evil and there's no alternative" crowd.
Labour would likely campaign for a 2nd Referendum though. Even if they didn't, they would most definitely need to be propped up by the SNP to form a government and they would force them to do so. So a Labour government will surely mean a 2nd Ref.
Given the Lib Dems / Change Party also want a 2nd Ref. will they really risk campaigning hard and splitting the remain vote off Labour in marginal seats? Thus making a Tory government and hard Brexit more likely.
I fully expect them to go after Labour when the withdrawal is sorted but doing it in a forth-coming snap election would be a big risk to the outcome of Brexit.
Its not so clear. They've avoided an unambigous stance on a 2nd ref largely for electoral reasons, so I doubt they'll go all out on an option that will be prezented as pro-Remain, 'betrayal of 2016' etc.
Nor is the SNP stance completely predictable - they only recently went for 2nd ref, but still the worry about setting a precedent which could mean a pro-indy ref vote being overturned in future.
Lib dems will focus where they have a chance of winning the seat - they never really bother much with tory-lab marginals
This, 100%. I expect them to campaign for Brexit Unicorn: Racist Marxist edition (tm), should there be an election prior to a Withdrawal Agreement being signed.
True. Though I don't see how they could campaign for anything else.
Libs are making a slow recovery in the polls (borne out by local elections), but an effective rebrand would be useful.
SNP will definitely campaign for a 2nd Ref, I dont see any doubt in that tbh. Labour will also definitely need SNP support too. So Labour may as well campaign for a 2nd Ref. since it will happen anyway, they can then at least help fend off the Lib Dems and a much more potentially damaging long-term Lib Dem resurgence.
Corbyn came round to supporting a 2nd Ref. on the last round of indicative votes, so it shows he can support the motion. I'd give it odds of about a 2 in 3 that Labour would campaign for a 2nd Ref in a snap election.
Parliament will get one last lot of indicative votes up-coming this week to get an option over the line.
The commons will be on their 3rd strike or their out, they will compromise to avoid a no-deal Brexit. The options came very close this time to a majority, the true fear of no-deal will take at least one over the line next time.
You can see from the 2nd indicative vote that the numbers are there when a few more make a compromise on their position in order to avoid a no-deal. There's only like 228 Tory, 3 Independents and the 10 DUP voting down absolutely everything.
Will the Lib Dems / SNP / Change Party be able to convince the Labour abstainers to vote for a 2nd Ref? It perhaps seems a bit more unlikely with the customs union option being so close now to getting over the line. All the labour abstainers need to do is tell them they're not going to vote for a 2nd Ref and they will know that 3 MPs from somewhere are bound to cave in and vote for the customs union in order to avoid a no-deal. But 12 votes off a majority also isn't much.
Letwin isn't bringing back any votes on Wednesday. So that looks like it, save a long extension...
The EU are indicating crashing out without a deal may be it.
It's quite likely now.
I could weep - I really could. Shocking, shocking tragedy.
Just being reported on NZ news this morning that May is holding a meeting at Downing St.
I think May's actually played that quite well.
First, she's forced Corbyn to take an actual position. Will it be remain (2nd ref) or leave? Either way is going to cause political problems for him
Second, it gives the ERG one last chance to vote for the hardest kind of brexit still available (her deal), or else get something much softer.
So it looks like she's finally pivoted to a soft brexit instead of no deal as the fallback option.
I don't see the ERG playing nice. If she's picked her side and it's against them then they're gonna be a little miffed.
Labour will push for as soft a Brexit as they can though, they hold all the cards and they will want to come out looking 'the heroes' and inflicting as much damage onto the Torys as they can.
This play has some upsides for the Tory Party but it is still far, far from good for them though. Conspiring with Corbyn to deliver a customs union... the Brexiteers are going to be furious that a Tory government would do this.
Don't think Labour are going to push for anything soft, unfortunately. Just a formal customs union.
The only thing the Brexiteers can do is vote against the government in a vote of confidence. And happily the Tory Party has rules about that: vote against the government, automatically get ejected from the party. So it's a career ending move, and also likely results in an even softer Brexit.
I meant Brexiteers in the public and the tabloids. I don't know what the ERG are going to do but I don't expect them to be very supportive of May or her deal.
It's an interesting position that Labour are now in. The softer Brexit is the better it is for them, however it now becomes 'their Brexit' rather than May's so they will be trying to balance the remain vote along with the leave. They could opt to simply try and see out the results from further indicative votes so they can deflect the choice onto the commons rather than it being theirs.
I think they may just calculate that the Remain voters aren't going to vote for anyone else and just try and go for something that keeps the leave portion of their base happy-ish.
Perhaps. A number of their MPs in leave areas will be on board with this too as they will want to try and not lose their seat.
However the softer they get Brexit the more opportunity they have to stick the knife into the Torys. They may lose some voters themselves in the process but the Torys will he losing more for going along with the softer approach.
It likely looked to Labour like they were about to get the GE Corbyn has always wanted. So Corbyn may not want to play very nice and be completely uncommodating so May refuses and it takes us back to where we were.
May about to resign, I believe.
^ She certainly has been so far but with MPs of all parties rebelling against her new Brexit deal, particularly holding another referendum, I really don't see how she can survive this time.
May going - hard Brexit now more or less guaranteed.
WTO rules here we come - taking back control or what. When are the WTO elections again?
Nothing changes with a new Tory leader.
Yeah it does. It they elect a no-dealer, it's remarkably hard for parliament to stop them. Not impossible, but not much margin for error either.
Don't see how, parliament is deciding what happens. The PM of Theresa May didn't exactly seem to have much control over what was happening.
May wasn't actively trying to go for no deal. Despite the stupid no-deal-is-better-than-a-bad-deal rhetoric, she knew that a no deal exit would be dreadful. A True Believer could quite easily take it to the wire, and Parliament has limited scope to stop him.
They have plenty of scope. They can force another referendum or a GE or for A50 to be revoked.
They can't force another referendum, or force A50 to be revoked.
They could force another general election via a VoNC, but the timespan for this a very tight. New Tory leader in July, pretend re-negotiations ending end September, leaving a couple of weeks for a VoNC to go through. Then not enough time to actually do anything.
Why not? Well I get that they can't actually enforce it themselves but that power they have to invoke a VoNC is just as good. If enough Torys say to the new PM "back the commons decision for a 2nd Ref or we'll take you to a GE" then it will put the new PM in a position where they'll have to accept that or risk the GE and losing power.
Yes, the MPs that don't want a No Deal Brexit certainly have a shorter window to act within than the Oct deadline but they will obviously know this. And as such they know know they'll have to come to a concensus with enough time left to actually enact upon such a concensus. With a No Deal Brexit looming there will be no more can kicking and the Anti-NoDeal MPs will be forced to make their move sooner rather than later.
And there won't be any pretend renegotiations. The EU will make it very clear that negotiations are off the table.
So the new PM won't be able to hide their position from Parliament.
Though no deal is most likely, i wouldn't 100% rule out us leaving the EU under Johnson on what is essentially a version of May's deal. It would have to be wrapped a bit differently, but shamelessness is his speciality.
Let's remember that this has all been about ambition for him - once he's in no.10, job done.
As you saw I am following a similar scenario. Assuming that Boris becomes leader, not 100% certain as the Tories could foolishly (for them) try for a more cautious approach, I think that your interpretation may well be correct
If there's a GE from a VoNC due to a No Deal Tory position then Labour will definitely be campaigning for a 2nd Ref along with the Lid Dems and greens and SNP. Change is dead so they will have to join the Lib Dems or something.
You can't have 3 or 4 parties campaigning for the same thing though, it will too badly split the vote. These parties would have to work together if they want victory over No Deal and not run against each other. They would have to let the party which is most likely to win in a given area campaign unrivalled and agree to a portional pre-agreed representation between them. The question is would they actually do this or would they fight each other?
12 Tory MPs saying they could VONC in Boris if appears he's No Dealing, that's perhaps just enough to get it through. Labour said they were going to wait before calling one but changed their minds now and mind call one within the day of him being chosen.
No realistic chance of that happening, but would be hilarious.
If the Queen is advised he is incapable of forming a Government then she would have to dissolve parliament.
Yes, no realistic chance of that happening though.
I said before. As soon as Boris gets in No. 10 Parliament will vote for another extension. If Boris doesn't agree then a VONC will get through. There won't be any waiting around.
Doubt it, the cries of 'letting a Marxist into no.10' will cow them
VONC is unlikely to happen until much closer to the October 31st deadline. I think there's a much higher chance that Johnson will call a general election of his own accord...
There's not enough time if it's left closer to the deadline.
A VONC doesn't necessarily mean it will go through either, it can simply be a mechanism for the Tory rebels to tell Boris to do what they want (ie get an extension and don't go for a No Deal) otherwise he can risk being being the shortest lived PM in history. He may change his mind once he's facing that proposition.
Correct. Given the useless response by the anti-no-deal contingent I expect they've neglected to realise this.
I'm pretty sure the piece of dung that "leads" the Labour party already said he won't table a VONC until the autumn (presumably because a no-deal is actually something that he wants).
The problem with the VONC strategy is that it's terminal for Tory MPs. Party rules mean that they're expelled from the party the moment they refuse to support the government in a VONC, so most of them really will wait until the very last minute.
I doubt they're that stupid. After Johnson gets in and doesn't ask for an extension that pretty much equates to the very last minute and I'm sure they will be well aware of that.
There's enough of them to start their own party "Tory's against No Deal". Either that or join the LibDems. Just have to wait and see what's most important to them, the country and their values or being a member of the Tories.
Like I said, this is going to happen some time in October. Johson will make a pretence of renegotiating, and nobody is going to pull the trigger until it's clear that's failed (even if it's obvious it will)
Well it's official.
Boris Johnson PM, worst PM in history? My gosh.
Johnson has a working majority of 2, likely to be 0 by the end of the summer. Thankfully that doesn't leave much scope for ******* things up, assuming Parliament can contrive a way to get around the automatic no deal Brexit problem.
The saving grace is that as well as possibly being the worst PM in history, he may also be the shortest lived one.
Say a VONC does go ahead.
Is it possible we will see a government of national unity give rise rather than an election?
It may seem unlikely but then you realize that the majority of parliament is against both Boris and especially Corbyn being PM so it sort of makes sense. Nobody wants to battle an election, the public don't want an election and nobody wants Farage getting a foothold into parliament. It would be the easiest and quickest way to sort out Brexit and may entice a number more Tory MPs to vote for the VONC if there is the possibility of them being safe from a Corbyn PM in the immediate future.
Parliament has not shown a willingness for such a move yet, however if a VONC goes ahead and they're put in the position between it and a GE it may just win out.
Farage and Johnson will snuggle up. The re-vamped BREXIT Party will therefore win a majority. And we are all f****d.
Very smart of Marmite Man TBH. If he does it swiftly enough, his incompetence will not have had time to be scrutinised by the electorate.
But Labour/Lib Dems will also have to shack up. It will be a another referendum but in the form of an election instead.
Labour is still a Brexit party, so of course they'll run separately - why wouldn't they?
On the figures at the moment we're likely looking at a massively hung parliament with the Lib Dems as kingmakers. My hunch is that Corbyn would be forced to step down for losing his sixth election on the trot (3x council elections, 2x general elections, 1x eu elections) and the Libs would confidence-and-supply whoever replaced him.
If a VONC isn't tabled and passed today it is too late.
Today is literally the last day a VONC can be tabled to force a general election before the 31st.
That time-table leaves a week before we leave the EU. So there appears to be a couple of days still for Labour to table one.
That may be the soonest for a 'standard' time-table. However a government of unity can still form much quicker so that leaves a few options open.
Labour could be banking on a temporary government of unity to form which will simply set the dead-line back and then dissolve into a GE. Parliament don't want a no-deal Brexit to go ahead so they can be pretty confident that this would happen.
There may be a number of MPs wanting a government of unity rather than an election so in order to get these MPs to back the No Confidence the opposition may need to actually wait until an election is too late and a unity is the only option left.
That's precisely the point - after today, there's not enough time to table a VONC. Recess starts tomorrow, and then standard procedure eats up another week.
This is true, though a government of unity seems incredibly unlikely.
This seems unlikely actually, especially given what Corbyn and his crew have said about such things in the past. Almost certainly a case of wishful thinking.
Labours stated goal is a general election. Why would they want a unity governmemt? From Corbyn's position it makes no political sense at all. Much better to let a hard brexit happen (which gets out of the way, and the EU out of the picture for some of their more outlandish plans) and let the Tories eat the fallout.
Perhaps Labour wants to drain the North Sea? "Perhaps" is doing an awful lot of work here.
The facts as they stand are:
- the Commons Library says there's now not enough time for a VONC to happen and an election to be held prior to Brexit
- this dramatically reduces the scope for Parliament to stop a no deal Brexit
- the chances of a unity government happening are tragically small
If Labour are in a position of either letting No Deal go ahead or forming a unity in order to push back the deadline to avoid it then they'll have no choice.
They can't just let that happen, it'll be absolute electoral suicide. They'll be hated by all remainers and get no credit for Brexit happening from leavers. It would be the stupidest political move in history.
I'm aware that McDonnell and others have ruled it out, he said that exact thing yesterday, but that's just trying to save face because in reality their hands would be tied.
The point I was making is that a VONC may not get through until after a unity is the only option left. Regardless of whether Labour actually want a unity or not they need every vote against the government they can, including probably a number of MPs that could be wanting a unity rather than a GE.
It also buys more time for the party to see the full extent of Boris's plan. The more obvious it is that Boris is going down the No Deal route the more likely the Tory MPs will vote against him.
It makes complete sense to wait in my opinion.
Forming a unity government would require Corbyn to step down. And the egotistical swine would never do that.
The thinking in Lexiteer circles goes that a hard brexit is worth it because a) it'll uncouple the UK from the EU, allowing some radical agenda to be implemented without EU law getting in the way b) the Tories will be blamed for it and wiped out.
A VONC can be tabled multiple times. There's nothing stopping Labour tabling one now - when it's literally the last chance of guaranteeing a no-deal Brexit can't occur - and then one later if it fails.
Nobody wants a unity government.
Some MPs do want it, a number have been calling for it.
A couple have been mooting it as a possible last ditch emergency thing. That's it. Not much to build a case on.
Actually, thinking through what's happened since Monday, it seems that Johnson is playing an absolute blinder. The chain of logic goes:
1. appoint a cabinet willing to countenance a no deal brexit, and piss off moderates in the party
2. set the bar impossibly high for the EU renegotiation
3. assume that Parliament will now find some way to at least block no deal
4. call a Brexit election in November
Brecon and Radnorshire by-election: Lib Dems beat Conservatives, cutting Marmite's majority to one. Who wants a convicted criminal for their MP anyway?
An immediate example of how the Brexit Party are gonna screw the Torys. No way they're not gonna be pacting up with Boris come the election. What a message that's going to send though, getting into bed with Farage.
Also a key example of how Labour and Lib Dems would need to pact if Tory's and Brexit Party did. With Brexit Party not fielding the Tory Party would have been at like 49% and won easily but if Labour also didn't field to combat that then the Lib Dem vote would have been up to the same level and it would have been close.
VonC is getting ever easier to get through. Every little helps.
It won't happen *. The Lib Dems have a path back by arguing that Labour have been useless in opposing Brexit. Meantime Corbyn's whole strategy has been to force a GE at which he hopes to win by wider arguments on inequality etc - uniting a coalition of people who voted different ways in the Brexit ref.
But even if by some miracle you got the leaderships of the parties to agree, its by no means certain that the actual parties would follow. For one thing, who is going to volunteer to step down as candidate? Entrenched local rivalries alone could scupper it.
*though who can really rule anything out nowadays?!
It will happen. Like I said, if the Brexit Party and Torys pact. If they don't pact then Labour and Lib Dems may well won't.
It will happen because it will have to happen. The by-election figures showed a clear example of how it will be necessary.
It doesn't matter about their paths. They have no path divided because the Tory / BP pact will annihilate them both. They will have to merge paths.
There's ways of working that out. It just takes compromise. They will generally want to field their best option, whoever has the greatest chance of winning. It will often be a case of "you can have this seat if we can have this one". Divide up the seats where the vote look pretty split.
Realize that in the case of a pact the Lib Dems are pretty much guaranteed to have plenty of MPs in parliament. As too will the SNP. Labour and Corbyn will have far from a majority in the commons, they won't have free reign.
You are assuming a level of balanced maturity from parties/candidates that I fear to be sadly lacking.
Like al., I'm wondering what your're smoking and whatever it is, I'd like some.
Corbyn has ruled out electoral pacts (which are actually against the Labour party constitution) and the LibDems have ruled out working with Corbyn. It’s just not going to happen.
BBC News - Brexit: Corbyn plans to call no-confidence vote to defeat no-deal
Exactly what I said would happen.
There may be some resistance from the Lib Dems and remainer Torys for Corbyn being the care-taker PM but at the end of the day the Lib Dems can't really say "no" let's just let Boris set an election after doomsday and we'll leave with a No Deal. The Lib Dems can't say that, let that happen and then wash their hands of letting No Deal happen - they're in a position where they would have to compromise their apparent position and let Corbyn be the one to set the date back.
As I keep saying and have said for months this VoNC is happening that's how this Brexit was always going to end, and this temporary unity to set the date back is also happening now. With Corbyn on record now it's prettt much a certainty. What happens after that though is still up in the air.
The LibDems, Greens and whatever the five remaining CUK MPs are calling themselves are already saying no, there's no chance the Tory rebels will vote for him, and half the independents will also refuse. So I don't see where the numbers come from.
should we infer that your recent certainty that there would be an electoral pact between Labour and the lib dems has been quietly abandoned?
No. I'm pretty confident on that one too.